Should You Sell Your Florida Home Now? The 2026 Answer
Updated: Sep 5
The quick answer: 2026 is the strongest selling window Naples has offered since rates first spiked — closed sales up 13.9%, pending sales up 12.1%, and inventory down 22% year-over-year. But it only rewards sellers priced within reach of the comps: last month the market logged 1,243 price cuts against just 56 increases.
“Should I sell now or wait?” had a fuzzy answer for three straight years. The May 2026 numbers made it crisp. Buyer demand came back — 900 closed sales, up 13.9% from a year ago — while the supply of competing listings fell 22%. Sellers finally have a tailwind. What they don’t have is pricing power on autopilot: the same report counted 1,243 price decreases against 56 increases. The market is saying yes to selling and no to overreaching, in the same breath.
Key Takeaways
Demand is real again: May 2026 closed sales rose 13.9% and pending sales 12.1% year-over-year, while inventory fell 22% to 5,299 homes (NABOR, Collier excl. Marco).
Prices are firming, not spiking: the overall median rose 1.7% to $599,900; single-family did the heavy lifting at +7.6% to $750,000.
Pricing discipline decides everything — 1,243 price cuts vs 56 increases in one month. Homes priced to the comps sell; aspirational listings sit through 99 average days on market.
The carrying-cost argument for waiting weakened: Citizens cut insurance rates by 8.7% (the first decrease since 2015), and rates near 6.5% are below the 7.8% long-run average — both NABOR economists advised against waiting for cheaper money.
At 7.1 months of inventory, Naples is still below its ~12-month balance point — sellers retain structural scarcity at most price points.
Data and sources current as of July 12, 2026.
What Changed: Demand Came Back While Supply Shrank
For most of 2024–25, “should I sell” really meant “will anyone show up?” That question is answered. New listings (991) couldn’t keep pace with the 1,066 homes that went under contract in May, and total inventory dropped from 6,790 to 5,299 in twelve months. NABOR’s analysts called the combination what it is: a competitive market heading into summer, with inventory now below pre-pandemic levels. Sellers who list into that setup are being met by real buyers — 61% of whom close in cash.
The Case for Selling in 2026
Four things line up. Demand: double-digit growth in both closed and pending sales. Scarcity: 22% less competition than last year, and just 7.1 months of supply against the ~12 months NABOR analysts consider balanced here. Prices: firming — the single-family median jumped 7.6% to $750,000. And the cost side finally bent your way: Citizens approved an 8.7% average rate decrease, its first since 2015, taking some sting out of the carrying costs that pushed many owners to list in 2023–24. If you have equity and a reason — downsizing, relocating, harvesting appreciation — the window is open and measurably wider than it was a year ago.
The Case for Waiting — Read It Honestly
Waiting has one strong argument and two weak ones. The strong one: hyper-local scarcity. In pockets where inventory has nearly vanished, next season may genuinely pay more — that’s a comp-level conversation, not a countywide one. The weak ones: waiting for lower rates, and waiting for the “top.” On rates, both economists in NABOR’s May report said the same thing — at roughly 6.5%, against a 7.8% long-run average, waiting for cheaper money mostly means paying a higher price later. On timing the top: 99 average days on market and 1,243 monthly price cuts say the market punishes overreach immediately. Nobody rings a bell.
The 5% Rule: What Actually Determines Your Outcome
Whether you sell in August or January matters less than where you price on day one. Listings priced within about 5% of what the comps support attract offers in the first 30–45 days; listings priced above that band sit, then chase the market down through successive cuts — and the data shows 1,243 sellers doing exactly that chase in a single month. Before deciding whether to sell, get the number that tells you what it sells for: a real comparative analysis, not a Zestimate. Then the decision usually makes itself. And since commission is the highest controllable cost of the move, a 1% listing means keeping roughly $12,000 more of a $700,000 sale than the Florida-average fee would leave you. Real estate commissions are not set by law and are fully negotiable. Figures shown are illustrative examples only, not a quote or guarantee.
If You Need Certainty More Than Ceiling
Some owners aren’t optimizing price — they’re settling an estate, relocating on a date, or done with insurance renewals. For them, the honest comparison isn’t 2026 vs 2027; it’s open market vs a vetted cash sale. In a county where 61% of closings are cash anyway, a properly run listing often delivers near-cash certainty at a far better number — but when days matter more than dollars, get competing cash bids rather than accepting the first postcard offer.
Ed’s Take: What I’m Seeing in the Field
The honest answer to “should I sell” has flipped twice in four years, so I don’t blame anyone for asking again. Right now the setup favors sellers more than at any point since the boom — more buyers, a fifth less competition, insurance finally moving in the right direction. But this market pays for realism and punishes ambition: over a thousand price cuts a month is the market grading sellers’ homework in public. If the comps support your number, this window is real. If they don’t, no season fixes that. My prediction: barring a rate shock, this fall looks like spring did — competitive for the priced-right, cold for everyone else.
Final Thoughts: The Window Is Open — Enter It Priced Right
2026 answered the demand question; only the pricing question is yours. If the comps support your number and your life supports the move, this is the friendliest seller’s setup since the boom — more buyers, fewer rivals, cheaper insurance. If your number needs the market to stretch 10% to meet it, you’ll spend a season teaching the neighborhood what not to do. Get the comp analysis first. Decide second.
Frequently Asked Questions About Selling in Florida Now
Is 2026 a good year to sell a house in Naples?
The data says yes for realistically priced homes: closed sales +13.9%, pending sales +12.1%, inventory −22% year-over-year, and a median price of $599,900. The caveat is discipline — 1,243 listings cut their price in May alone.
Will home prices in Florida drop if I wait?
Nobody can promise either direction, but current Naples fundamentals lean against a drop: inventory is below pre-pandemic levels and falling, demand is rising, and supply sits at 7.1 months versus a ~12-month balance point. Individual neighborhoods vary widely.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before selling?
Both economists reviewing NABOR’s May report advised against it: at ~6.5%, rates are already below the 7.8% average since the 1970s, and falling rates would likely lift prices — and competition — at the same time.
How long does it take to sell a Naples home right now?
NABOR reported an average of 99 days on market in May 2026. Well-priced homes move much faster — the listings that sit are overwhelmingly the ones priced above what comparable sales support.
What does it cost to sell, and can I reduce it?
Commission is the biggest line and the most controllable: Florida’s average runs about 5.57% all-in, while a 1% listing cuts the listing side to $7,000 on a $700,000 sale. Doc stamps ($0.70 per $100) are fixed by law. Commissions are fully negotiable; figures are illustrative only.
Article By: Ed DiMarco MS, MA
Ed DiMarco is an experienced real estate specialist with a proven track record in luxury rentals, investment properties, and commercial transactions. Deeply rooted in the Florida market and backed by a formal education in Business Management and Communication, Ed combines sharp analytical skills with a personalized approach to every client. Whether you’re renting, buying, or investing in Naples or elsewhere in Florida, he offers expert guidance and strategic insight to help you navigate the state’s ever-changing real estate landscape.
References
May 2026 Market Report — Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®)
Governor Announces Major Insurance Rate Relief — Executive Office of the Governor of Florida (2026)
Home Seller Concessions Hit Record High Rate — Redfin (May 2026)
Median Days on Market, Collier County FL — FRED, St. Louis Fed
Average Real Estate Agent Commission Rates (2026 Survey) — Clever Real Estate
