Naples, Florida Housing Market 2025: Data-Backed Insights
- Ed DiMarco
- May 28
- 6 min read
Hi, I’m Ed DiMarco. Today, I want to give you a clear, data-driven look at what’s happening in the Naples real estate market. Whether you're buying, selling, or investing, these shifts matter—and right now, Naples is in a state of steady decline across most housing metrics. I’ll explain what’s happening, why, and what it means moving forward. This post is based on my recent video:
The Monster in the Closet: Months of Inventory
Let’s start with what I consider the boogeyman of our market—months of inventory. This number tells us how long it would take to sell all current listings if no new homes came to market. At one point, we had a one-month supply. Today, it’s ballooned.
Across all property types, we’re averaging 12.4 months of inventory. Single-family homes are still hovering around 10.4 months, but condos suffer even more. New regulations—like structural integrity reserve studies and disclosure requirements—have made condo ownership more complex and intimidating, driving up condo inventory faster than single-family. These changes are a significant factor in why the Naples condo market is declining, especially among hesitant out-of-state buyers unfamiliar with Florida’s newer laws.
Market Heat: Naples Has Gone Cold
Zillow's Market Heat Index puts Naples at a mere 27.67. To give you some context, that’s the lowest score recorded for our area since they began tracking in 2018. That figure squarely places Naples in a strong buyer’s market. And when you look at the national landscape, Naples is performing worse than Cape Coral and Fort Myers.
Yet here’s where I diverge from the standard narrative. Many experts say it’s a great time to buy. I argue the opposite: If we think one to two years out, it might be a better time to sell. For those wondering if now is a good time to sell in Naples, Florida, this may be the moment to act before the market softens.
Home Prices: The Illusion of Growth
Here’s where the confusion often sets in—median home prices. On the surface, it looks like prices are rising. But don’t be fooled. The volatility of our relatively small market skews this data. The numbers tell a different story when you dig deeper and adjust for reality.
Zillow shows average home prices in Naples dipping from $617,000 to $581,000 starting in early to mid-2024. In real terms, anyone who bought between early 2022 and now is likely selling at a loss. If you’ve been searching for how much home prices are dropping in Naples, Florida, this is the data you need to understand the real market trend.
Why the disconnect?
Two reasons:
New Construction Lag: Builders launched ambitious projects during the pandemic boom. Those homes are hitting the market, propping up the median price.
Demographic Shift: Older buyers, with deeper pockets, are dominating the market and buying more expensive homes. That skews the median price higher, even as the average seller struggles.
Other Red Flags: Days on Market and Showings
Condos are now sitting on the market for an average of 65 days. Single-family homes aren’t far behind at 59 days—up more than 20% year over year. Meanwhile, the average number of showings per listing is just three per month. I tell my clients that you're looking at a long wait unless you're getting at least six.
Even more telling, sellers are getting just 95% of their list price on average, sometimes less. With inventories swelling and showings dropping, this trend only goes one way: down. If you're following current Naples housing market trends or wondering whether to buy or sell real estate in Naples right now, these are warning signs that shouldn’t be ignored.
A Glut of Inventory—and Builders Are Nervous
If we strip out new construction, the resale market has 11.8 months of inventory. Even newly built homes are struggling to move, with an 8.5-month supply.
That’s enough to make builders pause. Many are still buying land, but only cautiously, and only when the numbers work. Gone are the days of blanket optimism. Builders remember what happened the last time inventory climbed while demand dropped. Their behavior aligns with those tracking Naples housing inventory levels into 2025—slow, selective, and cautious.
What History Tells Us: A Bubble on Top of a Bubble?
Let’s take a step back. Real estate markets have always had cycles. But what’s unique here is that we may be looking at a boom built on top of another. The early 2000s were hot—until they weren’t. Today, we’ve seen unprecedented price growth since the COVID boom, and it’s starting to unwind.
We don’t have the same loose lending practices that contributed to the 2008 crash, but we do have other systemic risks—credit score inflation, affordability crises, and a potential oversupply. We might be at the top of the rollercoaster again. For those trying to understand Naples, Florida real estate market predictions for 2025, this could be the phase before a broader correction takes hold.
Recent Developments: May 2025 Confirms the Downward Trend
As of May 2025, the numbers continue to confirm what I’ve been seeing on the ground here in Naples for the past two years. Inventory has climbed to 14.3 months—the highest level I’ve recorded since the market started turning. At the same time, median sale prices have slipped to $525,000, continuing their steady decline from the peak of $617,000 in early 2024.
I’m also seeing homes sit longer than ever. The average number of days on market has reached 79, which means most buyers aren’t rushing into decisions. That hesitation is reflected in Zillow’s Market Heat Index, which has now dropped to just 26.0—officially placing Naples among the coolest markets in the country right now.
In short, the data tells the same story I see every day in real time: this correction is far from over. The market clearly favors buyers at the moment, but interestingly, many of them are still holding off, expecting prices to drop even further.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers:
For buyers, I say this: time is on your side. The longer you wait, the more leverage you’re likely to gain. Sellers are still clinging to peak pricing, but that mindset won’t last forever.
I’ve recently seen prime properties in Aqua Lane Shores—a premier Naples waterfront community—sell at massive discounts. One lot listed at $5 million sold for $3.5 million. That’s a 30% haircut on some of the most desirable real estate in the region. This kind of market movement is a critical context for those asking whether they should buy or sell real estate in Naples right now.
For Sellers:
If you're a seller, this may be your last best window to exit before the slide deepens. While no one can predict how long the correction will last, the momentum is clear—and it’s not in your favor the longer you wait.
Final Thoughts: Make Informed, Not Emotional Decisions
The fundamentals of supply and demand haven’t changed. With rising inventory and cautious demand, prices have only one direction to go unless something dramatic shifts, like a substantial drop in interest rates. But even then, if that drop comes because of a recession, demand still may not recover enough to stop the slide.
The bottom line: it’s a perilous time to buy unless you're getting a truly exceptional deal, far below market value. As for sellers, exiting now might allow you to look back in a year or two and feel thankful you acted early.
Feel free to contact me if you’d like to discuss your specific situation. I’m always happy to discuss the numbers with you.
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Article By: Ed DiMarco MS, MA
Ed DiMarco is a seasoned real estate professional whose expertise spans luxury rentals, investment properties, and commercial real estate. With deep roots in the Florida market and an academic background in Business Management and Communication, Ed brings analytical insight and personalized strategy to every transaction. Whether renting, buying, or investing in Naples or beyond, Ed is your trusted guide through Florida's evolving real estate landscape.
