2026 Forecast: Is Bonita Springs a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
- Ed DiMarco
- 31 minutes ago
- 7 min read
As 2025 nears its end, Bonita Springs stands at a pivotal point in its housing cycle. Once dominated by aggressive bidding wars and lightning-fast sales, the market is now adjusting to a more balanced rhythm. But as we enter 2026, one question defines the local real estate conversation: Is Bonita Springs shifting toward a buyer’s market, or do sellers still hold the edge? Let’s explore the latest data and what it means for your strategy in the coming year.
Current Market Outlook: November 2025 Bonita Springs Housing Data
1. Inventory Levels Surge: A New Era of Balance
November 2025 market reports from Southwest Florida MLS show that active listings in Bonita Springs reached approximately 1,380, a notable 22% year-over-year increase. Across Lee County, total residential inventory climbed to nearly 17,200 homes, up from around 14,000 in late 2024. The months of supply now sit near 6.8 months, up from just 4.5 months a year earlier—a key indicator of the market’s transition from seller-dominated to balanced.
This means buyers now have significantly more options and time to evaluate properties, while sellers face longer listing durations and greater competition. Real estate agents report that only well-priced, updated homes are drawing strong offers within the first month of listing.
2. Median Prices: Cooling but Holding Steady
The median sale price in Bonita Springs for November 2025 sits at $560,000, a modest 2.3% year-over-year increase, reflecting a plateau after years of double-digit appreciation. The average price per square foot hovers around $395, slightly below the $405 average seen in mid-2025.
In contrast, Lee County as a whole posted a median sale price of $440,000, indicating that Bonita Springs continues to command a premium due to its coastal proximity and lifestyle appeal.
That said, sellers are conceding more during negotiations. On average, homes are closing at 94% of the original list price, compared to 97% last year—a tangible sign of a softening seller advantage.
3. Days on Market: Properties Taking Longer to Sell
Homes are staying on the market longer than they did a year ago. The average Days on Market (DOM) for Bonita Springs rose to 98 days in November 2025, compared to just 63 days in November 2024. This metric underscores a slower sales pace, in which patient buyers can negotiate better deals—especially for listings that have lingered for over 2 months.
Luxury listings (over $1 million) are particularly affected, with an average DOM exceeding 120 days, while mid-range properties priced between $350K and $700K are still seeing steady interest, often closing within 70–80 days when priced competitively.
4. Interest Rates & Affordability Outlook
Mortgage rates continue to play a defining role in the 2025 housing slowdown. In November 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fluctuated between 6.6% and 6.8%, according to Freddie Mac and Bankrate data. Although this is slightly lower than 2023's highs, affordability remains a key constraint for many buyers.
Looking ahead to 2026, most economic forecasts suggest rates could dip to around 6.2–6.4% by midyear if inflation continues its downward trend. Even this slight reduction could boost buyer activity by improving purchasing power by 5–8%.
5. Segment Breakdown: Winners and Losers
Luxury Market ($1M+): Inventory levels are up nearly 30% YoY, leading to greater price flexibility. Sellers in this tier are offering closing cost credits and furniture incentives to attract offers.
Mid-Range Homes ($350K–$700K): Still the strongest segment, supported by relocation buyers and downsizers. Steady demand continues for turnkey properties in gated and waterfront communities.
Condo Market: Facing rising supply, especially seasonal and investor-owned units. Average condo prices dipped about 4% YoY, but rental demand remains stable, providing some downside cushion.
6. Cash vs. Financed Deals: The Shift Continues
Cash buyers remain a dominant force in the Bonita Springs market, but have declined slightly. In November 2025, cash transactions accounted for 62% of all closed sales, down from 68% the previous year. This reflects an uptick in financed buyers returning to the market as lenders report increased mortgage activity amid stabilizing rates.
Regional Comparison: Bonita Springs vs. Southwest Florida
Bonita Springs continues to outperform nearby markets in terms of pricing. Naples has a median sale price of $735,000, higher than Bonita's, but months of supply and DOM are similar, reflecting balanced conditions. Estero shows a median price around $510,000 with slightly shorter DOM, while Fort Myers averages $420,000, with higher inventory and faster sales, favoring buyers even more. Bonita Springs remains desirable due to coastal access, quality schools, and community amenities, maintaining a modest seller edge in prime neighborhoods despite overall market moderation.
Forecast for 2026: Leaning Toward a Buyer’s Market
Looking into 2026, Bonita Springs appears poised to favor buyers slightly, especially in the first half of the year. With mortgage rates holding around 6.6–6.8% but expected to edge down toward 6.2–6.4%, affordability should improve modestly. However, elevated inventory levels will continue to weigh on prices, with projections calling for 0–2% appreciation through mid-2026.
With inventory rising, days on market lengthening, and sale-to-list ratios tightening, Bonita Springs is expected to enter 2026 as a balanced-to-buyer-leaning market. While home prices are unlikely to drop sharply due to ongoing demand and strong local fundamentals, sellers will need to price strategically and remain flexible on terms. Overall, the market is shifting from urgency to strategy—defined by patience, data-driven decisions, and balanced expectations on both sides.
Buyers can expect more negotiation power, especially on homes listed for over 45 days. Sellers who adapt early—with accurate pricing, professional presentation, and assistance with closing costs—will continue to find success in 2026.
Year-Over-Year Market Analysis: 2023–2025 and 2026 Forecast for Bonita Springs
This year-over-year trajectory highlights Bonita Springs’ evolution from a hot seller’s market in 2023 to a more buyer-friendly environment anticipated in 2026:
Year | Median Sale Price | Average Days on Market | Active Listings | Months of Supply | Price per Sq Ft | Market Type |
2023 | $520,000 | 60 | 1,100 | 4.2 | $380 | Strong Seller’s Market |
2024 | $550,000 | 63 | 1,130 | 4.5 | $390 | Slight Seller’s Market |
2025 | $565,000 | 98 | 1,380 | 6.8 | $395 | Balanced Market |
2026 Forecast | $570,000–$575,000 | 95–100 | 1,400–1,450 | 6.8–7.0 | $395–$400 | Buyer-Leaning Market |
Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers:
Expect more inventory and less competition than in previous years.
Monitor homes listed for 60+ days; they often offer room for concessions.
Get pre-approved early—slight rate drops in 2026 could boost affordability.
For Sellers:
Price within 3–5% of comparable sales to attract serious buyers.
Consider offering incentives, such as closing-cost assistance or temporary rate buydowns.
Prepare for more extended marketing periods (90+ days) and more negotiation.
Final Outlook: Is Bonita Springs a buyer’s or seller’s market in 2026?
Bonita Springs in 2026 is shaping up as a balanced market tilting toward buyers, driven by increased inventory, moderate price growth, and steady but slower sales. Buyers can take advantage of increased choice and negotiation power, while sellers who price correctly and provide added incentives will still achieve successful outcomes. Whether you’re planning to buy or sell, success will depend on timing, accurate pricing, and adapting to the evolving dynamics of Southwest Florida’s real estate landscape. Strategic decision-making and awareness of current market trends will be the key to navigating Bonita Springs real estate in 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions About Bonita Springs Real Estate 2026
1. Is Bonita Springs a buyer’s or seller’s market in 2026?
Based on November 2025 data, Bonita Springs is shifting toward a balanced-to-buyer-leaning market, with increased inventory and longer days on market giving buyers more leverage.
2. What is the median home price in Bonita Springs as of November 2025?
The median sale price is approximately $565,000, reflecting modest year-over-year growth of 2–3%.
3. How long are homes staying on the market in Bonita Springs?
The average days on market (DOM) for all homes is currently 95–100 days, with luxury properties over $1M averaging 120 days.
4. How does Bonita Springs compare to nearby markets like Naples and Estero?
Bonita Springs remains more affordable than Naples ($735,000 median) and slightly higher than Estero ($510,000 median), with similar DOM and balanced market conditions.
5. Are mortgage rates expected to change in 2026?
Current 30-year fixed rates are 6.6–6.8%, expected to ease to 6.2–6.4% in early 2026, improving affordability for buyers.
6. What is the best time to buy or sell in Bonita Springs?
With the market balancing, buyers benefit from waiting for homes listed 45+ days, while sellers should list properties with accurate pricing and incentives early in the year to remain competitive.
7. How has the Bonita Springs housing market trended over the past two years?
From 2023 to 2025, median prices rose from $520,000 to $565,000, DOM increased from 60 to 98 days, and inventory expanded from 1,100 to 1,380 listings, signaling a shift from a strong seller’s market to a balanced environment moving into 2026.
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Article By: Ed DiMarco, MS, MA
Ed DiMarco is a seasoned Naples real estate broker with nearly 20 years of experience in residential, luxury, and investment properties. He holds dual master’s degrees in Business and Communication and is recognized for his strategic insights and advocacy in Florida’s housing market. Ed was the founder of Ed DiMarco Realty, LLC, and a trusted voice on market trends in Southwest Florida.