Naples Real Estate Rebound: What’s Driving the 56% Surge in Pending Sales
- Ed DiMarco
- 3 days ago
- 9 min read
The real estate market in Naples, FL, is showing signs of renewed strength — especially in pending sales, i.e., homes under contract but not yet closed. According to the latest data from November 2025, pending sales are up a staggering 56.3% year-over-year.
But what exactly is fueling this rebound? Let’s walk through the key drivers, underlying conditions, and what this could mean for buyers and sellers heading into 2026.
What the Data Shows in the Naples, FL Housing Market Surge of 2025
The October 2025 data for Naples presents a compelling picture of accelerating momentum. Pending sales climbed to 641 contracts, representing a powerful 56.3% year-over-year surge, signaling that buyer demand has returned with conviction. At the same time, 1,461 new listings entered the market—an impressive 52% annual increase, showing that sellers are responding to renewed buyer energy. The median sale price rose to $595,000, reflecting a month-to-month gain of 4.8% and a 3% annual increase, suggesting stabilizing yet still competitive pricing.
Closed sales also displayed significant strength, with 615 completed transactions, marking a 28.4% YoY jump, proving that demand is translating into real movement rather than stalled contracts. Inventory also expanded modestly, and the months of supply rose, indicating a healthier market balance rather than runaway competition. Overall, these figures show that Naples is experiencing a genuine, multi-layered rebound.
Naples / Southwest Florida Housing Metrics Reflect a Rebalancing Market in 2025
Market indicators from the 2025 NABOR® reports highlight a dynamic but recalibrating housing environment. The overall median closed price of approximately $575,000 reflects a slight annual increase of 0.9%, while single-family homes adjusted downward to about $700,000, and condominiums edged up to $420,000. The region recorded 790 pending sales, up dramatically from 532 the year prior, representing a 48.5% YoY increase. Closed sales also climbed to 663 transactions, a substantial 33.4% increase, reinforcing active buyer follow-through.
New listings grew significantly to 1,566 homes, marking a 27.2% annual increase, offering buyers more selection and fostering a competitive but not overheated environment. Still, the notable 1,161 price reductions and an increase in average days on market—from 89 to 107 days—suggest that sellers are adjusting expectations and buyers are more discerning. The 2025 landscape reflects a market finding balance after years of rapid fluctuation.
Naples 2025 Housing Market Snapshot
Month | Pending | Closed | Median Price | Notes |
April 2025 | — | 893 | — | 11.2 months supply (2025 low) |
Sept 2025 | 599 | 547 | $580,000 | New listings +4.6% MoM |
Oct 2025 | 790 | 663 | $575,000 | Inventory 5,386 (+6.7% YoY) |
Key takeaway:
As mortgage rates declined, Naples saw rising pending + closed sales, confirming the connection between affordability and demand.
2025 Mortgage-Rate Overview and Affordability Shifts
2025 Mortgage Rates – Month‑to‑Month Table
Month 2025 | Avg 30‑Yr Fixed Rate | MoM Change | Notes |
January | 6.62% | — | Rates ease from late‑2024 highs. |
February | 6.55% | ▼ 0.07% | Early‑year buyer activity strengthens |
March | 6.48% | ▼ 0.07% | Spring demand accelerates |
April | 6.47% | ▼ 0.01% | Stabilizing inflation prints |
May | 6.50% | ▲ 0.03% | Slight bump, but still improved affordability |
June | 6.44% | ▼ 0.06% | Best mid‑year affordability point |
July | 6.41% | ▼ 0.03% | Momentum returns to Sun Belt markets |
August | 6.38% | ▼ 0.03% | Naples pending sales climb steadily |
September | 6.31% | ▼ 0.07% | Mortgage demand rises |
October | 6.28% | ▼ 0.03% | Buyers re‑enter the market before the season |
November | 6.23% | ▼ 0.05% | Strongest rate environment of 2025 |
Year‑to‑Year Mortgage Rate Comparison (2024 vs. 2025)
Mortgage dynamics in 2025 significantly shaped buyer behavior across Naples and the broader U.S. After starting the year with the 30-year fixed rate hovering near 7.04%, borrowing costs gradually eased as inflation pressures softened and bond yields retreated.
By mid-November 2025, rates stabilized in the 6.23%–6.26% range, delivering meaningful monthly payment relief for prospective buyers. Fifteen-year fixed rates followed a similar trajectory, falling from roughly 6.27% to around 5.49%–5.54%, improving affordability and widening buyer interest.
Month | Avg Rate 2024 | Avg Rate 2025 | YoY Difference | Buyer Impact |
Jan | 7.12% | 6.62% | ▼ 0.50% | Big affordability jump |
Mar | 7.10% | 6.48% | ▼ 0.62% | Strongest YoY improvement |
Jun | 6.98% | 6.44% | ▼ 0.54% | Increases borrowing power |
Sep | 7.05% | 6.31% | ▼ 0.74% | Drives surge in pending sales |
Nov | 6.95% | 6.23% | ▼ 0.72% | Fuels late‑year buyer confidence |
This nearly 0.8-point reduction from early-year highs translated to real-world improvements in borrowing power and confidence, particularly for Naples buyers who rely on financing. Although still elevated compared to the ultra-low pandemic-era rates, the downward shift reinvigorated demand and played a direct role in boosting pending and closed sales throughout the region.
Trend Summary
Overall, the gradual decline in mortgage rates throughout 2025 provided the affordability tailwind that helped bring buyers back into the Naples real estate market. Rates trended downward through 2025 as inflation cooled, improving affordability and providing a tailwind for Naples’ surge in demand.
How Falling 2025 Mortgage Rates Are Fueling the Naples, FL Real Estate Comeback
The easing of mortgage rates has played a pivotal role in propelling Naples’ 2025 housing revival. As financing costs decreased, buyer affordability improved, encouraging hesitant purchasers to re-enter the market. This renewed confidence was amplified by stable pricing trends and growing inventory, allowing buyers to explore more opportunities without facing aggressive bidding wars.
Sellers also adapted their strategies as the year progressed. With rates still above 6%, the market demanded realistic pricing, which many sellers met by offering strategic reductions or flexible negotiation terms. The combination of improved affordability, renewed buyer activity, and seller adjustments cultivated a more balanced market—one where demand is strong yet grounded in practicality.
What’s Driving the Surge in Pending Sales in the Naples, FL Real Estate Market
The significant increase in pending sales across Naples stems from multiple converging forces that reshaped market confidence in 2025.
Declining Mortgage Rates Bring Buyers Back
Lower mortgage rates throughout 2025 attracted both seasonal and full-time buyers.
Improved affordability encouraged many previously hesitant buyers to re-enter the market.
Renewed Buyer Confidence Spurs Activity
Steadier economic conditions and predictable rate trends boosted buyer sentiment.
Many who were waiting for stability felt confident enough to move forward with offers.
Significant Increase in Inventory Expands Buyer Choices
A 52% jump in new listings gave buyers more options across price ranges.
More inventory reduced competitive pressure and made the market more approachable.
Stable-to-Rising Prices Show True Market Strength
Despite increased inventory, home prices remained stable or slightly higher.
Strong demand kept values resilient, signaling a healthy, balanced market.
Strong Demand Across Coastal, Golf & Luxury Segments
Pending and closed sales rose sharply in Naples’ premium neighborhoods.
Coastal communities, golf-lifestyle areas, and luxury markets saw exceptionally high activity.
Key Market Headwinds Naples, FL Buyers and Sellers Should Watch in 2025
Despite the strong rebound, Naples is not without market challenges. Rising inventory levels may gradually temper price appreciation, creating a more competitive environment for sellers.
Earlier in 2025, conditions resembled a partial buyer’s market in some segments, and lingering affordability concerns still affect specific buyers, especially given that mortgage rates remain above six percent.
Additionally, factors such as insurance costs, economic uncertainty, and increased days on market shape buyer behavior in more cautious ways.
The condo sector in particular faces heightened competition, making strategic pricing and strong property presentation more critical for sellers aiming to stand out.
Naples, FL Real Estate Forecast 2026: What Buyers, Sellers, and Investors Can Expect
Looking ahead to 2026, Naples appears well-positioned for continued stability and growth if mortgage rates maintain their downward trajectory or ease further.
For buyers:
For buyers, the coming year may offer one of the best combinations of inventory availability, softer pricing pressure, and improving borrowing conditions seen in several years.
For sellers:
For sellers, strong buyer demand persists; however, success will increasingly rely on appropriate pricing, property condition, and strategic timing. Inventory competition is rising, meaning the days of effortless premium pricing are fading. Investors, particularly those operating with cash or low leverage, may find Naples increasingly appealing due to its long-term demand, demographic migration patterns, and resilient property values.
Final Thoughts: Naples’ 2025 Momentum Sets the Stage for a Strong 2026
Naples’ housing market is showing robust signs of life, with rising pending sales, stable pricing, and growing inventory creating a balanced environment for both buyers and sellers. For investors, these trends indicate strong long-term potential, particularly in coastal, golf, and luxury communities. Buyers can take advantage of improved mortgage rates and a more predictable market to secure high-value properties. As 2026 unfolds, Naples is poised to offer a combination of lifestyle appeal and innovative investment opportunities.
FAQs: Naples Real Estate Rebound — 56% Surge in Pending Sales (2025)
1. What does a 56.3% surge in pending sales mean for Naples?
Pending sales in Naples reached 641 contracts in October 2025, representing a 56.3% increase year-over-year. This dramatic surge reflects a robust rebound in buyer confidence and activity, indicating that more homes are going under contract and signaling a market recovering momentum after previous fluctuations.
2. What key factors are driving this rebound?
Several converging factors fuel the rebound in Naples. Mortgage rates fell significantly throughout 2025, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping from approximately 7.04% in early 2025 to 6.23% by November, improving affordability for buyers. Inventory increased sharply, with 1,461 new listings in October, giving buyers more options. Meanwhile, median sale prices remained stable or increased slightly, showing a balanced market. Seasonal buyers and relocations from high-tax states, coupled with sustained interest in luxury and coastal properties, have further propelled the market.
3. How has inventory changed, and why does it matter?
Inventory in Naples expanded modestly in 2025, giving buyers more choices and reducing intense competition. This healthier supply environment allows buyers to consider multiple properties and reduces the likelihood of aggressive bidding wars, contributing to the increase in pending sales.
4. Are home prices rising alongside pending sales?
Median home prices rose to $595,000 in October 2025, representing a 4.8% month-over-month gain and a 3% year-over-year increase. Single-family homes averaged around $700,000, while condominiums averaged $420,000. Prices are stabilizing and remain competitive, reflecting buyers’ price sensitivity and sellers’ adjustments to maintain market appeal.
5. Which property types and neighborhoods are strongest?
Luxury waterfront homes, golf-course communities, and high-rise condos along Gulf Shore Blvd are seeing strong demand. The most active neighborhoods include Park Shore, Old Naples, Pelican Bay, and Golden Gate Estates, with consistent buyer interest in well-located and high-quality properties.
6. How did mortgage rates influence buyer activity?
The decline in mortgage rates throughout 2025 enhanced buyer affordability, especially for those requiring financing. The nearly 0.8-point reduction in 30-year rates increased purchasing power. It encouraged buyers who had been hesitant earlier in the year to enter the market, directly contributing to rising pending and closed sales.
7. What role do closed sales play in understanding market health?
Closed sales in Naples totaled 615 transactions in October 2025, a 28.4% year-over-year increase. This confirms that pending sales are translating into completed deals rather than stalled contracts, demonstrating the market’s actual strength and vitality.
8. Are Naples conditions similar to broader Southwest Florida markets?
Yes. The region saw 790 pending sales (+48.5% YoY), 663 closed sales (+33.4% YoY), and 1,566 new listings (+27.2% YoY), mirroring Naples’ momentum.
9. Are there any market headwinds to watch?
Despite the rebound, challenges remain. Rising inventory may temper future price gains, and mortgage rates still above 6% continue to influence buyer affordability. An increase in days on market (from 89 to 107 days) suggests more careful buyer evaluation. Additionally, insurance costs and economic uncertainties may affect some buyers’ decisions, while condos face heightened competition, requiring sellers to adopt strategic pricing.
10. What should buyers expect heading into 2026?
Buyers in 2026 can expect a combination of improved inventory, stable or slightly softening prices, and favorable mortgage rates if current trends continue. This environment presents opportunities for strategic negotiations and potentially better affordability than in previous years, especially for well-positioned and turnkey properties.
11. What should sellers focus on in 2026?
Sellers should prioritize strategic pricing, present properties in excellent condition, and time listings to align with peak buyer activity. While demand remains strong, competition is rising, and premium pricing will require a clear value proposition in terms of condition, location, or amenities to attract committed buyers.
12. How can investors benefit in Naples right now?
High demand for luxury, waterfront, and turnkey homes, especially for cash or low-leverage buyers, makes Naples attractive for both short- and long-term investments.
13. What is the overall forecast for Naples real estate?
The market is balanced with rising pending and closed sales, moderate price growth, and vigorous buyer activity, offering opportunities for buyers, sellers, and investors alike.
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Article By: Ed DiMarco, MS, MA
Ed DiMarco is a seasoned Naples real estate broker with nearly 20 years of experience in residential, luxury, and investment properties. He holds dual master’s degrees in Business and Communication and is recognized for his strategic insights and advocacy in Florida’s housing market. Ed was the founder of Ed DiMarco Realty, LLC, and a trusted voice on market trends in Southwest Florida.
References:
Naples Real Estate Market Finds Balance in October 2025 • Downing-Frye Realty, Inc.
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
October 2025 Real Estate Update - Naples Golf Homes | Naples Golf Guy
2025 Florida Market Shift: Data-Driven Deep Dive into Balancing Regions