Florida's Outmigration Crushes Naples' Housing Market 2025
- Ed DiMarco MS, MA
- Jun 22
- 6 min read
Florida’s real estate market has been very active in recent years, but things are changing. More people are leaving Florida than expected, and this shift is starting to affect local housing markets. Naples, a city known for its luxury lifestyle and strong real estate market, is among those impacted.
Florida's Changing Migration Trends
Historically, Florida has been one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S., driven by retirees, remote workers, and those seeking a lower tax burden. However, according to the latest 2025 U.S. Census migration report, Florida experienced a net population loss of approximately 34,000 residents in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first quarterly loss since 2009. United Van Lines’ 2025 National Movers Study also ranked Florida as one of the top 5 states where people move out in 2025.
Key reasons:
Skyrocketing insurance premiums: Average homeowners insurance premiums in Florida reached $6,000 annually in 2025, triple the national average (Insurance Information Institute).
Climate change concerns: FEMA data shows that flood risk designations in Florida increased by 18% year-over-year due to intensifying hurricane forecasts.
Overcrowded infrastructure: According to the Florida Department of Transportation, congestion on I-75 and U.S. 41 reached record delays in Q1 2025.
Political polarization: In May 2025, the University of South Florida surveyed 47% of residents who cited political tensions as a major reason for considering relocation.
These issues have begun to outweigh the traditional draws of sunshine, no state income tax, and affordability.
Who’s Leaving: Residents or Snowbirds?
One of the most telling signs of demographic shift is who is leaving the state. According to the Q2 2025 Florida Demographics Report:
Nearly 72% of the outmigration is from full-time residents, primarily middle-class families and working professionals aged 30–55.
Snowbirds—typically seasonal retirees from northern states—are not exiting at the same rate but are showing hesitancy in purchasing property. Instead of buying, many are choosing to rent or reduce the length of their seasonal stays.
A May 2025 AARP Florida survey revealed that 38% of snowbirds who previously owned property have either sold or are considering selling due to rising HOA fees and hurricane insurance costs.
In June 2025, anecdotal reports show Canadian snowbirds are increasingly pulling back, with up to 18 Canadian-owned listings reported per quarter this spring, compared to the usual 2–4. Some have forfeited bookings over $1,000 due to political worries. Additionally, a Florida International University poll in May showed nearly 40% of Florida Venezuelans now regret past political choices, highlighting disillusionment across immigrant and snowbird groups.
This shift is especially critical for markets like Naples that rely heavily on both full-time residents and seasonal buyers for housing demand and local business revenue.
Naples Housing Market Already in Decline
Naples, known for its upscale housing and high demand from wealthy buyers, has seen a softening of its market since late 2023. By Q2 2025, home sales volume dropped by nearly 18.2% year-over-year, according to the Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR). As of June 2025, the median closed price continued its downward trend to $610,000, a further drop from $615,000 in May and $655,000 in June 2024. Meanwhile, active listings grew to 7,900 properties, representing a 52% year-over-year surge. The average number of days on market rose to 56 days, indicating increased selling time and market hesitation.
How Statewide Outmigration Accelerates Naples’ Decline
The growing trend of people leaving Florida compounds the existing challenges in Naples:
Reduced Buyer Pool:
A shrinking population naturally reduces demand, especially for secondary or luxury homes, a significant segment in Naples.
Rental Market Saturation:
According to AirDNA data, Naples' short-term rental occupancy dropped to 46% in June 2025, down from 61% in June 2024, leading to lower yields and increased investor sell-offs.
Downward Pressure on Prices:
As more homes remain unsold and supply increases, prices are forced to adjust downward to attract fewer buyers.
Investor Hesitation:
Redfin’s investor activity index for Naples shows a 29% drop in investor purchases in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
HOA Costs Creating Barriers:
Rising homeowners association (HOA) fees are further discouraging buyers. According to Florida HOA Trends 2025, Naples HOA fees grew by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2025, with average monthly fees now exceeding $550 in many gated and condo communities. These costs, compounded by insurance premiums and special assessments, are pushing both snowbirds and retirees to reconsider.
Ripple Effect Across Industries:
A weaker housing market affects construction, real estate services, and local spending, dampening economic vitality in Naples. The Collier County Economic Development Office noted a 6% drop in new real estate job postings from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025.
Naples Housing Market Decline & Outmigration Effects – Data Summary (2024–2025)
Metric | June 2024 | May 2025 | June 2025 | Change YoY / MoM |
Median Closed Home Price | $655,000 | $615,000 | $610,000 | ▼ $45,000 YoY / ▼ $5,000 MoM |
Home Sales Volume | — | — | — | ▼ 18.2% YoY (Q2 2025) |
Active Listings | ~5,200 (est.) | — | 7,900 | ▲ 52% YoY |
Avg. Days on Market | 38 days (est.) | — | 56 days | ▲ +18 days YoY |
Short-Term Rental Occupancy | 61% | — | 46% | ▼ 15% YoY |
Investor Purchases (Redfin Index) | — | — | — | ▼ 29% 1H 2025 vs 1H 2024 |
HOA Fees (Monthly Avg.) | ~$493 | — | ~$550 | ▲ 11.6% YoY |
Real Estate Job Postings (Collier Co.) | — | — | — | ▼ 6% Q1 2024 → Q1 2025 |
These figures highlight how a combination of declining demand, increased supply, and external pressures—like rising costs and outmigration—are reshaping the Naples housing market.
What to Expect for the Naples Real Estate Market in 2025
The Naples housing market, once insulated by wealth and desirability, is no longer immune to broader state trends. While demand from high-net-worth individuals may cushion the blow to some extent, sustained outmigration from Florida will continue to influence home prices in Naples, absorption rates, and investor sentiment in the region.
This evolving landscape presents both risk and opportunity for potential buyers or investors. Is now a good time to buy a home in Naples, Florida? Possibly, for those who can wait for long-term returns and navigate the added costs.
Conclusion: Outmigration and Naples' 2025 Housing Forecast
The news of increased outmigration from Florida has spread through markets like Naples, intensifying an already declining housing trend. Why are people leaving Naples, Florida, in 2025? Central reasons include rising costs, political unease, and market saturation.
What was once a seller's paradise is gradually shifting into a buyer's market, reshaping investment strategies and homeowner expectations.
FAQs About Florida Outmigration and the Naples Housing Market 2025
1. Why are so many people leaving Florida in 2025?
Rising insurance costs, political polarization, overcrowding, climate-related risks, and elevated HOA fees are pushing both working families and retirees to leave.
2. How is Florida’s outmigration affecting the Naples housing market?
Outmigration has lowered demand in Naples, resulting in falling prices, increased inventory, and investor retreat.
3. Are snowbirds selling their Florida properties in 2025?
Yes, many are selling or choosing to rent instead, driven by high costs of ownership, such as HOA fees and hurricane insurance.
4. Is Naples, Florida, still a good place to buy real estate in 2025?
Naples still offers long-term value, especially for cash buyers or those eyeing distressed sales, but short-term profits may be limited.
5. What are HOA fees like in Naples, Florida, in 2025?
Fees rose by 11.6% year-over-year. Many communities now charge $550+ per month, plus assessments.
6. Are luxury home prices dropping in Naples in 2025?
Yes, luxury home values are down. The median price is now $610,000, compared to $655,000 in June 2024.
7. Is political polarization really causing people to leave Florida?
Yes, a University of South Florida poll found 47% of residents cite politics as a factor in considering a move.
8. What’s happening to the Naples short-term rental market in 2025?
Occupancy fell from 61% in June 2024 to 46% in June 2025, leading to lower profits and increased investor exits.
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Article By: Ed DiMarco, MS, MA
Ed DiMarco is a seasoned Naples real estate broker with nearly 20 years of experience in residential, luxury, and investment properties. He holds dual master’s degrees in Business and Communication, and is known for strategic insight and advocacy in Florida’s housing market. Ed is the founder of Ed DiMarco Realty, LLC, and a trusted voice on market trends in Southwest Florida.
