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  • Writer's pictureEd DiMarco MS, MA

Tampa, Florida Real Estate Market Analysis - June 2024

Tampa, Florida Real Estate Market Analysis - June 2024

Understanding the Current Market Dynamics in Tampa

The Tampa, Florida, real estate market demonstrates a healthy balance between supply and demand. According to the latest data, the month's inventory supply is at a relatively low 3.24. This metric indicates that, at the current sales pace, it would take just over three months to sell all the homes currently available. This balance suggests a well-functioning market where neither buyers nor sellers have overwhelming control.


Significant Increase in Inventory Levels

However, a noteworthy trend is the substantial increase in the months of inventory over the past year, with a 12-month change of +133.09%. This significant rise points to a shift towards a more buyer-friendly market, as inventory levels have increased dramatically compared to the previous year. This shift may provide more options for buyers and potentially temper the pace of price increases seen in prior periods.


Inventory Levels in Tampa Housing Market

Sustained Demand and Competitive Tampa Market

Despite the increase in inventory, homes are still selling relatively quickly. The median days on the market is just 22 days, indicating strong demand. This quick turnover highlights the market's competitive nature, where homes do not linger long before being sold. Buyers continue to be active and are snapping up available properties efficiently.


Home Prices Holding Steady in Tampa, FL

Sellers can find comfort in that homes are selling close to their list price, with a list-to-sold price percentage of 97.8%. This high percentage shows buyers are willing to pay near the asking price, reflecting a stable market where price negotiations remain tight. This trend is encouraging for sellers, indicating sustained buyer interest and competitive offers.


Stable Median Sold Prices

The median sold price of homes in the Tampa area is currently $430,000, suggesting stability in the market. This stability is further supported by the data from 2023, where the average sales price for new and existing homes increased by 6% to an all-time high of $450,700. This consistent price appreciation points to a robust market where values hold firm despite the increased inventory.


Market Forecast and Confidence

Overall, the Tampa real estate market remains robust and balanced. Both buyers and sellers can feel confident in the current state of the market. The increase in inventory offers more choices for buyers, while the steady prices and quick sales assure sellers. The market's ability to absorb the increased supply without significant price drops underscores its resilience and attractiveness.


As we move forward, monitoring inventory levels, sales pace, and price trends will be crucial for buyers and sellers to make informed decisions. The Tampa real estate market continues to be a dynamic and appealing environment for real estate transactions, driven by solid demand and balanced conditions.


Are Home Prices Dropping in Tampa, Florida?

Home prices in Tampa, Florida, are not currently dropping. The market remains stable, with a median sold price of $430,000. Over the past year, the average sales price for new and existing homes increased by 6% to $450,700, an all-time high. While there has been a significant increase in the months supply of inventory, indicating a potential shift towards a more buyer-friendly market, the demand for homes remains robust. This sustained demand, coupled with the quick turnover of properties, suggests that home prices are holding steady and are not expected to decline significantly in the near term.


Is Tampa Real Estate Overpriced?

Determining whether Tampa real estate is overpriced involves comparing home prices with local economic factors such as income levels, employment rates, and overall affordability. While home prices have risen steadily, the market data indicates that buyers are still willing to pay close to the asking price, with a list-to-sold price percentage of 97.8%. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index shows that the Tampa HMA is more affordable than 37% of metropolitan areas in the nation. This suggests that while prices are high, they are not necessarily overpriced, given the area's economic conditions and demand dynamics.


What Is the Outlook for Tampa Real Estate in 2024?

The outlook for Tampa real estate in 2024 is positive, with expectations of continued stability and moderate growth. The market is forecasted to remain balanced, with an average annual increase of 45,100 people in population and a similar pace of household growth. The demand for new single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums is estimated at 44,825 units over the next three years, with 5,100 sales units currently under construction. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by an average of 2.9% annually, further bolstering the housing market. This steady economic and population growth supports a favorable outlook for Tampa real estate in 2024.


Is It a Good Time to Buy a House in Tampa, FL?

Yes, it is an excellent time to buy a house in Tampa, FL. The market conditions are balanced, providing opportunities for both buyers and sellers. With the months supply of inventory increasing, buyers have more choices and potentially more negotiating power. Additionally, the median days on the market are relatively low at 22, indicating strong demand and a competitive market. Home prices are stable, and the list-to-sold price percentage suggests that homes are selling close to their asking prices. For buyers looking to invest in a growing and stable market, now is an opportune time to purchase a home in Tampa.


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