The Jacksonville Housing Market Area (HMA), encompassing Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties, presents a dynamic portrait of the region's economic vitality, housing trends, and future projections. The St. Johns River, flowing through Jacksonville into the Atlantic Ocean, is a crucial economic artery, supporting the Port of Jacksonville and central naval installations. As of January 1, 2024, the HMA population is approximately 1.73 million, reflecting the city's growth and development.
Economic Conditions
Robust Economic Growth:
In 2023, nonfarm payrolls in the Jacksonville HMA surged by 33,900 jobs, a 4.4 percent increase, reaching a total of 805,700 jobs. This growth continues the trend from the previous year, which saw a 5.0 percent increase. The labor market remains tight, with an average unemployment rate of 2.8 percent over the past two years. Key sectors driving this growth include professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing, supported by the strategic location and infrastructure of the Port of Jacksonville.
Key Economic Drivers:
Professional and Business Services: The most significant sector, employing 131,900 individuals, accounting for 16 percent of nonfarm payrolls.
Leisure and Hospitality: Witnessed a 6.1 percent increase, adding 5,300 jobs.
Manufacturing: Grew by 6.1 percent, adding 2,100 jobs, bolstered by a skilled workforce and extensive transportation infrastructure.
Strategic Infrastructure:
The Port of Jacksonville, or JAXPORT, plays a pivotal role. It is the leading container port in Florida and a critical hub for international trade. The presence of the U.S. Navy and major employers like Baptist Health System, Mayo Foundation, and Amazon.com further solidified Jacksonville's economic base.
Population and Households
Population Growth:
Jacksonville's population has seen significant growth, driven primarily by net in-migration. From 2013 to 2017, the HMA experienced an average annual population increase of 30,800 people, a 2.1 percent growth rate. This trend has continued, with the population estimated to reach 1.82 million by January 1, 2027.
Household Formation:
The number of households in the HMA is estimated at 703,700 as of January 1, 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 3.1 percent since 2020. The homeownership rate is 65.2 percent, up from 64.3 percent in 2020, driven by affordable housing options and robust economic conditions.
Home Sales Market
Current Market Conditions (April 2024 Update):
The Jacksonville real estate market is experiencing a low inventory level, with a Months Supply of Inventory at 2.78, indicating a seller's market. However, compared to the previous year, there has been an increase of 11.2% in the Months of Inventory, suggesting a slight shift towards a more balanced market. Homes are selling relatively quickly, with a median of 34 days on the market. This quick turnover can be attributed to the high List to Sold Price Percentage of 98.5%, indicating that sellers receive close to their asking price. The median sold price of homes is $314,245, providing a benchmark for property values in the area. These metrics suggest a competitive market with strong demand, where sellers can expect favorable offers, and buyers must act swiftly and make competitive offers to secure their desired property.
Balanced Market Conditions:
The Jacksonville home sales market remains balanced, with an estimated vacancy rate of 1.8 percent. In 2023, the average new and existing home sales price increased by 5 percent despite a 22 percent decline in home sales. This decline is attributed to rising home prices and elevated mortgage interest rates, which averaged 7.00 percent in 2023.
Resale and New Home Trends:
Resale Homes: Sales peaked in 2021 with 60,000 homes sold but declined to 29,700 in 2023.
New Homes: New home sales followed a similar trend, peaking in 2022 with 10,850 homes sold before declining to 9,600 in 2023.
Affordability Challenges:
Homeownership has become less affordable over the past four years, with the NAHB Housing Opportunity Index falling to 39.0 in Q4 2023 from 71.4 in Q4 2019.
Rental Market
Soft Rental Market Conditions:
The rental market in Jacksonville is currently soft, with an overall rental vacancy rate of 11.0 percent, up from 9.5 percent in 2020. Elevated apartment construction since 2021 has led to higher vacancy rates and moderated rent growth.
Apartment Market Trends:
The apartment vacancy rate reached 13.5 percent in Q4 2023, the highest in over two decades. The average apartment rent declined by 2 percent to $1,471 during the same period.
New Construction:
Rental construction has been robust, with an average of 9,375 units permitted annually between 2021 and 2022 and approximately 8,950 units in 2023.
Future Projections
Economic Forecast:
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent over the next three years, with continued contributions from goods-producing and service-providing sectors. Significant projects like RiversEdge and Riverfront Jacksonville will further bolster economic growth.
Housing Demand:
Over the next three years, 39,250 new single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and 14,300 rental units are projected to be needed. The 6,300 homes and 10,500 rental units currently under construction will meet part of this demand.
Conclusion
The Jacksonville HMA presents a thriving economic landscape with solid job growth, an increasing population, and dynamic housing market trends. While housing affordability and rental market softness persist, strategic developments and continued economic expansion position Jacksonville as a key player in Florida's real estate market.
FAQ: Jacksonville, Florida Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis
Economic Conditions
1. What is the current nonfarm payroll growth in the Jacksonville HMA?
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 33,900 jobs, or 4.4 percent, in 2023, reaching 805,700 jobs.
2. What are the most significant sectors driving economic growth in Jacksonville?
The largest sectors are professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing.
3. How has the unemployment rate changed in recent years?
The unemployment rate has averaged 2.8 percent over the past two years.
4. What role does the Port of Jacksonville play in the local economy?
The Port of Jacksonville, or JAXPORT, is the leading container port in Florida and a critical hub for international trade.
5. Which significant employers are based in Jacksonville?
Major employers include the U.S. Navy, Baptist Health System, Mayo Foundation, and Amazon.com.
Population and Households
6. What is the current population of the Jacksonville HMA?
As of January 1, 2024, the population is approximately 1.73 million.
7. How has the population growth trended in recent years?
From 2013 to 2017, the population grew by an average of 30,800 people annually. This trend has continued, with an estimated population of 1.82 million by January 1, 2027.
8. How many households are there in the Jacksonville HMA?
As of January 1, 2024, there are approximately 703,700 households.
9. What is the current homeownership rate in Jacksonville?
The homeownership rate is 65.2 percent, up from 64.3 percent in 2020.
10. What has driven household growth in recent years?
Household growth has been driven by affordable housing options and robust economic conditions.
Home Sales Market
11. What are the current market conditions in Jacksonville's real estate market?
The market is currently a seller's market, with a low inventory level—a Month's Supply of Inventory at 2.78—and a median of 34 days on the market.
12. How has the Months of Inventory changed over the past year?
The months of inventory have increased by 11.2 percent compared to the previous year, indicating a slight shift towards a more balanced market.
13. What is the median sold price of homes in Jacksonville?
The median sold price is $314,245.
14. How quickly are homes selling in Jacksonville?
Homes are selling with a median of 34 days on the market.
15. What is the List to Sold Price Percentage in Jacksonville?
The List to Sold Price Percentage is 98.5 percent.
16. How has the average home sales price changed in recent years?
In 2023, the average new and existing home sales price increased by 5 percent.
17. How many resale homes were sold in 2023?
There were 29,700 resale homes sold in 2023.
18. How has the new home sales market trended?
New home sales peaked in 2022 with 10,850 homes sold, before declining to 9,600 in 2023.
19. What is the NAHB Housing Opportunity Index for Jacksonville?
The NAHB Housing Opportunity Index fell to 39.0 in Q4 2023 from 71.4 in Q4 2019.
Rental Market
20. What are the current rental market conditions in Jacksonville?
The rental market is currently soft, with an overall rental vacancy rate of 11.0 percent.
21. How has the apartment vacancy rate changed recently?
The apartment vacancy rate reached 13.5 percent in Q4 2023.
22. What is the average apartment rent in Jacksonville?
The average apartment rent declined by 2 percent to $1,471 in Q4 2023.
23. How many rental units were permitted in 2023?
Approximately 8,950 rental units were permitted in 2023.
24. What are some notable new rental construction projects?
Recent projects include the 376-unit Pinnacle and the 240-unit Beachline apartments in Jacksonville.
25. How has rental affordability changed in recent years?
Rental affordability has generally declined since 2016 due to significant rent growth outpacing income growth for rental households.
Future Projections
26. What is the economic forecast for Jacksonville over the next three years?
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent.
27. What major projects are expected to impact Jacksonville's economy?
Significant projects include RiversEdge and Riverfront Jacksonville, further bolstering economic growth.
28. What is the projected housing demand in Jacksonville?
Over the next three years, demand is projected to be for 39,250 new single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and 14,300 rental units.
29. How many homes and rental units are currently under construction?
There are 6,300 homes and 10,500 rental units currently under construction.
30. How is household growth expected to trend?
Household growth is expected to increase faster than population growth, with an average annual increase of 17,850 households.