top of page
  • Writer's pictureEd DiMarco MS, MA

Comparing 12 Florida Real Estate Market Forecasts for Florida in 2024: Focus on Naples, FL

12 Florida Real Estate Market Forecasts for Florida in 2024

The Florida real estate market predictions for 2024 present a varied outlook across different sources, with a general trend toward stabilization and moderate growth. Here's a summary of the findings:

  1. Norada Real Estate: They forecast a 5.2% increase for the Florida housing market by September 2024, suggesting a steady growth trajectory.

  2. The Mortgage Reports: Experts note that while home prices remain high, they have begun to decline from peak levels reached in 2022. High mortgage rates, averaging over 7% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, are impacting affordability and slowing sales activity. However, inventory levels are improving, indicating a potential shift towards a more balanced market.

  3. Florida Realtors: This source doesn't provide specific figures for 2024 but suggests a strong market outlook. The increase in inventory and slowing price growth point toward a more balanced market, with many buyers and sellers waiting to see how mortgage rates evolve.

  4. Ramsey Solutions: They report a slight increase in the median time to sale and a 10% increase in average mortgage rates, indicating a cooling market. The median listing price in Florida was around $462,623 in November 2023, higher than the national average, suggesting continued market strength despite growing affordability concerns.

  5. RealWealth: They highlight Florida's rapid growth in residential construction, with a significant increase in the number of building permits issued. This could indicate a healthy supply of new housing, potentially easing the inventory constraints.

  6. Houzeo: Predicts a continued strong market in Florida, with buyer broker commissions becoming more negotiable, potentially impacting the dynamics of real estate transactions.

  7. Redfin: They expect home prices to fall and new listings to rise in 2024, signaling a potential shift toward a buyer's market. This prediction is set against economic unpredictability, with factors like financial market volatility and government policies playing a significant role.

  8. Benoit Properties: Notes strong population growth and rising real estate prices in several Floridian cities, indicating robust market potential in these areas for 2024.

  9. Moving to Florida Guide: Sarasota's market remains strong, with a seller's market due to current inventory levels. This suggests regional variations within the state, with some areas experiencing more robust demand than others.

  10. The Mortgage Reports (5-Year Forecast): Experts predict that mortgage rates might trend downward starting in 2024, potentially easing affordability concerns. Inventory is expected to improve over the next two years, though solid population growth will keep it tight in the long term.

  11. Norada Real Estate (5-Year Forecast): The forecast for the next five years suggests that emerging technologies, demographic changes, and the rise of remote work will shape the housing market. Median home prices might fall by 5% in 2024, but if real incomes rise faster than inflation, this could boost affordability and home sales.

  12. WMFE: Economic forecasters predict a 'turbulent' housing market recession in Central Florida, drawing parallels to the housing recessions of the 1980s rather than the 2008 crash.

Overall, the Florida real estate market predictions 2024 indicate growth, stabilization, and potential shifts towards more affordability and balanced market conditions. However, regional variations are significant, and factors like mortgage rates, economic trends, and government policies will be crucial in shaping the market dynamics.

The real estate market, particularly in Florida and, more specifically, Naples, is a complex ecosystem influenced by various factors ranging from economic trends to local policies. With multiple sources offering predictions for 2024, it can be challenging to decipher what this means for investors, homeowners, and potential buyers in Naples. This article aims to synthesize these predictions, offering a comprehensive understanding of the Naples real estate market.

Understanding the Predictions

  1. Economic Indicators and Real Estate Dynamics Economic trends shape real estate markets. Predictions often reference vital economic indicators like mortgage rates, inflation, and employment rates. For instance, higher mortgage rates, as noted by The Mortgage Reports, directly impact buyer affordability and market demand.

  2. Regional Market Trends Florida's diverse real estate landscape means trends can vary significantly between regions. While some areas may experience growth, others might see stabilization or a price decrease. For example, Redfin's prediction of a fall in home prices and a rise in new listings in 2024 suggests a shift towards a buyer's market, which might hold true for specific areas within Naples.

  3. Population Growth and Migration Patterns Florida, known for its favorable climate and lifestyle, attracts new residents. As Benoit Properties highlights, cities like Fort Myers and Sarasota have experienced significant population growth, impacting housing demand and prices.

  4. Impact of Government Policies and Development Trends Governmental decisions, such as zoning laws and tax incentives, significantly influence the real estate market. The increase in building permits, as discussed by RealWealth, indicates a healthy supply of new housing, potentially easing inventory constraints.

  5. Long-Term vs. Short-Term Predictions It's essential to differentiate between short-term and long-term market predictions. Norada Real Estate's five-year forecast suggests that median home prices might fall by 5% in 2024, but if certain economic conditions are met, prices could rise again from 2025.

Implications for Naples, FL

  1. Market Stabilization and Growth The Naples real estate market will likely experience a combination of stabilization and moderate growth. While sources like Norada Real Estate predict a 5.2% increase by September 2024, other indicators suggest a more balanced market.

  2. Investment Opportunities Despite potential market shifts, Naples remains an attractive destination for real estate investment. The city's unique appeal, coupled with Florida's overall growth, presents opportunities, particularly in the luxury property segment.

  3. Buyer and Seller Strategies With varying market conditions, buyers and sellers in Naples must adopt flexible strategies. Sellers might need to adjust pricing expectations, while buyers could benefit from increased inventory and potentially lower prices.

  4. Navigating Uncertainties Economic unpredictability and regional differences necessitate a cautious approach. Investors and homeowners should stay informed about broader economic trends and local market conditions.

  5. Long-Term Outlook Naples' real estate market, bolstered by factors like population growth and quality of life, offers a promising long-term outlook. However, investors should consider potential market volatility and regional disparities in development and pricing.


Making sense of diverse real estate market predictions requires understanding the underlying factors driving these forecasts and recognizing the unique characteristics of specific markets like Naples, FL. Stakeholders can navigate the market with greater insight and confidence by considering economic trends, regional dynamics, government policies, and long-term forecasts.

Remember, while predictions provide valuable insights, they are not guarantees. Continuous monitoring of market conditions and expert consultation will be crucial for making informed real estate decisions in Naples, FL.

Other Sources:


bottom of page